Minneapolis (CNN) — The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9% the month before.

Economists were expecting net job gains of 180,000 for the month and for the unemployment rate to hold steady.

The largest employment gains last month came in health care and government, which added an estimated 93,200 and 49,000 jobs, respectively.

November’s job growth was stronger than October’s unrevised tally of 150,000 jobs added. September’s job gains were revised down to 262,000 from 297,000, according to the BLS.

The continued strength in the labor market has helped fuel consumer spending and economic growth, but Federal Reserve officials believe slower demand will help bring down inflation.

Through November, the economy has added an average of 232,000 jobs per month — far more moderate growth than 2022 and 2021, when an estimated 399,000 and 606,000 jobs were added every month, respectively.

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Minneapolis (CNN) — Another key economic report further propped up the idea that a soft landing is not only possible, but also in motion: The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge continued its deceleration in June while consumers kept the US economic engine running.

Commerce Department data released Friday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3% for the 12 months ended in June, easing for the second-consecutive month and stepping back from May’s 3.8% increase.

When stripping out energy and food prices, the core PCE index showed prices increased 4.1% in June from the year before. Economists were expecting the core index to increase 4.2% on an annual basis. In May, the core PCE rose 4.6% annually.

The Fed uses the core PCE index as the benchmark for its 2% inflation target.

On a monthly basis, the headline and core indexes both rose 0.2%.

Friday’s data “does give support to the idea that we’re in the midst of a soft landing” in bringing down inflation without causing a recession, Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for Nationwide Mutual, told CNN. “That said, it’s still elevated. At 4.1%, we’re more than double the target 2% inflation that the Fed’s looking to eventually reach.”

And that — combined with continued strength in consumer activity — means the Fed might still keep its foot hovering above that gas pedal. Earlier this week, the US central bank raised rates by a quarter point, taking them to the highest level in 22 years.

“It’s going to keep them still leaning hawkish,” she said of Fed officials. “They’re still going to be vigilant, but it’s certainly welcome news.”

Spending keeps economy churning, puts heat on the Fed

The PCE indexes are part of the Personal Income and Outlays report, which provides a more comprehensive look at shifts in prices, including how consumers respond to them and how much consumers are spending, bringing in and saving.

Personal incomes ticked up 0.4% in June, staying somewhat consistent with increases seen since February, while the personal savings rate ticked down to 4.3% from 4.6%.

Friday’s report also showed that consumer spending picked up in June by 0.5%, representing a resurgence from a more moderate pace seen during the prior four months. In May, spending ticked up by a revised 0.2%.

When adjusting for inflation, spending increased 0.4%, driven by a surge in goods-related purchases, specifically of new trucks and recreational products and vehicles, according to the report.

“It just demonstrates consumers’ resiliency, the fact that they’re continuing to spend at such a robust clip on goods as patterns are shifting back toward normal and services are becoming a larger portion of consumption,” said Shannon Seery, economist for Wells Fargo. “I think a lot of people have been waiting for the shoe to drop in goods consumption, but we’re really not seeing that pan out.”

Friday’s spending data provides a fuller picture at what was hinted in the second-quarter GDP report issued Thursday: The economy grew stronger than expected and while consumers did rein in some spending from earlier in the year.

Still, the spending uptick seen in June could mean a strong start to the third quarter, Seery said.

To what extent that momentum is just enough to keep the economy churning while not being too strong to fuel inflation remains to be seen, she added.

“It’s sort of circular, where a tight labor market is keeping consumers spending, and that’s keeping the economy floating, but that also keeps the heat on the Fed,” she said. “I think the Fed is looking at this report and maybe not saying, ‘We have to do more immediately,’ but obviously taking it as an indication that they’re going to have to remain at that upper bound for quite some time.”

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(CNN) — The US economy added 311,000 jobs in February, according to the latest monthly employment snapshot from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, released Friday.

That’s a pullback from the blockbuster January jobs report, when a revised 504,000 positions were added, but shows the labor market is still emitting plenty of heat.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% from 3.4%.

February’s net job gains surpassed economists’ estimates for a more modest month, with only 205,000 to be added. Separately, downward revisions to December’s and January’s totals weren’t that drastic.

While Friday’s report is a strong one, that’s actually bad news in the broader context of the Federal Reserve’s campaign to curb high inflation, said PNC Financial Services chief economist Gus Faucher.

“It’s much hotter than the economy can run, and so this means the Fed is going to have to continue to hike interest rates,” he told CNN. “And that makes a recession more likely.”

Barring a surprisingly low Consumer Price Index inflation report next week, Faucher said he expects the Fed to go forward with a half-point rate hike at its March 21-22 meeting, which would be a higher pace than the recent, more moderate quarter-point increase.

The Fed has been battling for almost a year to slow the economy and crush the highest inflation in 40 years, but the labor market continues to defy those efforts.

“Coming up on the one-year anniversary of the Fed’s first rate hike, we never thought we would see the economy churning out 311,000 more jobs this month,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist of FwdBonds, in a statement. “The party is on and the labor market is having a blast. The economy clearly is not landing, it is soaring.”

The monthly job gains remain well above pre-pandemic norms, when roughly 180,000 jobs were added per month between 2010 and 2019, BLS data shows. However, the labor market remains tight and imbalances continue to persist in the ongoing recovery efforts from the devastating pandemic.

Labor turnover data released earlier this week for January showed that there were 1.9 job openings for every person looking for one. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has frequently highlighted how the labor market remains short of pre-pandemic growth projections by more than 3 million people.

The pandemic accelerated expected demographic trends (the aging out of the massive Baby Boom generation) with increased retirements; people also dropped out of the workforce for care-related needs and health concerns such as long Covid; and there were hundreds of thousands of workers who died from Covid.

February’s employment report showed a 0.1 percentage point increase in the labor force participation rate to 62.5% — the highest its been since April 2020. However, it remains below pre-pandemic levels of 63.4%.

Additionally, there was some upward movement in the jobless rate, which increased 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%.

“Contributing to upward pressure here, there were more people looking for work,”said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

Industries with notable job gains included leisure and hospitality, retail trade, government and health care. After being crushed during the pandemic, the leisure and hospitality has been steadily adding back employees and trying to meet increased demand from consumers shifting their spending from goods to services.

Average hourly earnings — a closely watched metric as the Fed seeks to evaluate the impact of rising wages on inflation — grew 0.2% month-on-month and were up 4.6% over the year before.

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(CNN) — The US economy added an astonishing 517,000 jobs in January, showing that the labor market isn’t ready to cool down just yet, according to new data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5%, hitting a level not seen since before Neil Armstrong stepped on the moon.

Economists were expecting 185,000 jobs would be added last month, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv.

“With 517,000 new jobs added in January 2023 and the unemployment rate at 3.4%, this is a blockbuster report demonstrating that the labor market is more like a bullet train,” Becky Frankiewicz, president and chief commercial officer of ManpowerGroup, said Friday.

The juggernaut of a report may cause complications for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to tame high inflation with higher interest rates, said Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Asset Management.

“This is a labor market on heat; nobody would have expected a number as monstrous as this,” Shah said in a statement. “Is [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell now wondering why he didn’t push back on the loosening in financial conditions? It’s difficult to see how wage pressures can possibly soften sufficiently when jobs growth is as strong as this, and it’s even more difficult to see the Fed stop raising rates and entertain ideas of rate cuts when there is such explosive economic news coming in.”

“The market is going to go through a rollercoaster ride as it tries to decide if this is good or bad news. For now, though, looks like the US economy is doing absolutely fine,” she said.

Wage growth slowed in January, with average hourly earnings falling 0.4 percentage points to 4.4% year over year.

The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4% from 62.3%.

Every January, the BLS makes revisions on its employment data to reflect updated population estimates and other factors.

This story is developing and will be updated.

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(CNN) — It was a ho-hum end to 2022 for spending in America.

US retail sales continued their fall in December, dropping by 1.1% as inflation remained high, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

That’s the largest monthly decline since December 2021, and practically every category (except for building materials, groceries and sporting goods) saw sales drop from the prior month.

Economists had expected sales to fall by just 0.8% for the month, according to Refinitiv. The November number was revised down to -1%.

All in all, the final retail sales report for 2022 shows a muted finish to a holiday season that crept even further into October versus the traditional late-November and December.

October was the last strong retail sales month of 2022, as discounting and slowing inflation prompted consumers to shop more then, said Kayla Bruun, economic analyst at Morning Consult.

“I think the hope was that this was going to lead to a little bit more momentum heading into the holiday season,” she said. “But really, it turned out to be more of just an early bump that actually took away from some of the spending that otherwise might have happened in November and December.”

The Commerce Department’s retail sales data is not adjusted for inflation, which reached a 40-year high in June before falling during the second half of 2022, hitting 6.5% for the 12-month period ending in December, according to the latest Consumer Price Index reading released last week.

Wholesale price growth is also cooling significantly: The Producer Price Index for December measured 6.2%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Wednesday.

During the November and December holiday season, retail sales grew 5.3% over 2021 to $936.3 billion, the National Retail Federation reported Wednesday.

The holiday total, which is not adjusted for inflation and excludes sales at auto dealerships, gas stations and restaurants, falls short of the trade association’s projections of 6% to 8% holiday sales growth.

“We knew it could be touch-and-go for final holiday sales given early shopping in October that likely pulled some sales forward plus price pressures and cold, stormy weather,” said Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist, in a statement. “The pace of spending was choppy, and consumers may have pulled back more than we had hoped, but these numbers show that they navigated a challenging, inflation-driven environment reasonably well. The bottom line is that consumers are still engaged and shopping despite everything happening around them.”

Potential slowdown ahead

Consumer spending has remained robust despite inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears. However, some economic data suggests that activity may be losing some steam and that Americans are running out of dry powder.

“I think the consumers has gotten very active in managing their household budget and what they’re willing to spend on,” said Matt Kramer, KPMG’s national sector leader for consumer and retail. “They’re spending more time looking for the deals and being thoughtful about when they make purchases.”

That’s seen in the monthly sales declines in categories like motor vehicles, which were down 1.2% from November; furniture, down 2.5%; and electronics, down 1.1%, according to Wednesday’s report.

“Certainly on those large purchases, financed purchases where interest rates play in, the consumers are pushing those decisions out and extending their buying cycles around the larger categories,” he said.

The next few months are traditionally the slowest for retailers, but headwinds like credit card debt and stubborn inflation may exacerbate that, said Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate.

“A further slowdown in purchasing appears likely, at least in the near-term,” Rossman said in a statement.

Keeping a close watch on services spending

Discretionary spending is usually the first to go, with people typically cutting back on travel, eating out and other expenditures, said Amanda Belarmino, assistant professor of hospitality at the University of Nevada Las Vegas.

However, the post-pandemic pent-up demand that fueled strong services spending in 2022 is still going strong. Spending on food services and drinking places was up 12.1% in December from the year before.

“What we’ve seen in restaurants, tourism, hospitality is completely contrary to what we normally see in an economic slowdown,” Belarmino said. “We have seen consumers continue to make that spending. But where you’re seeing those slowdowns are things like people canceling their streaming services, canceling their Peloton, canceling their home services. So it seems that consumers are making those trade-offs.”

However, shifts in tipping activity could be harbinger of shifts to come.

“The average tip rate in the US had gone up to about 18% to 20%, and there are some indicators that’s going to be falling back down toward the 15% range,” Belarmino said. “It’s not a huge thing, but it’s a way for consumers to save money.”

How spending activity holds up in the service industries will be a critical indicator in the coming months, Morning Consult’s Bruun said, adding that a strong labor market should help to prevent a dramatic collapse in spending.

“That has been the component of consumer spending that’s been driving growth,” she said. “And it’s going to need to, going forward, because we’ve really seen that goods demand has been tapped out to a large extent.”

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April is typically a pretty eventful month for the cannabis industry, with 4/20 celebrations bringing abundant attention — and sales.

But things have been heating up much earlier this year. In the first four days of April, the US House of Representatives (once again and narrowly) passed a bill to decriminalize marijuana and then, days later, (overwhelmingly) approved legislation to ease barriers to cannabis research. In addition, Maryland lawmakers voted to put an adult-use cannabis measure on their state’s November ballot; New Mexico became the latest state to begin recreational sales; and this Thursday,New Jersey will start selling recreational cannabis.

The full-scale legalization of cannabis in America feels like it’s closer than ever: More states have passed recreational-use laws; comprehensive legislation is gaining attention — and votes — in Congress; and the industry continues to steamroll to maturity with a stream of mega-mergers, high value investments and steady sales.

“The fact that the House of Representatives has passed [the Marijuana Opportunity Reinvestment and Expungement Act] in two successive sessions of Congress really is a sign that the end of federal prohibition is drawing near,” said Steven Hawkins, president and chief executive officer of the US Cannabis Council, a trade and lobbying organization.

However, while thisis an industry that has long held a “not if, but when” belief toward legalization, what’s viewed as inevitable is not necessarily imminent. The MORE Act, which mustered only three Republican votes, is not expected to succeed in the Senate. Additionally, a separate legalization bill that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is expected to introduce this summer also might not garner the 60 votes needed to pass.

“In terms of passage of either [bill], it’s still a tough path ahead in the Senate,” Hawkins said. “But we’re not ruling anything out.”

A $27 billion industry

The absence of federal legalization has not slowed down one of the fastest-growing industries in the United States.

The cannabis industry reeled in an estimated $27 billion in sales in 2021, up 35% from 2020, according to data released earlier this month by MJBiz, a cannabis trade publication and events organizer. And in the next five years, it projects sales will nearly double.

“Right now, over 425,000 jobs in the economy are tied to the cannabis industry. With that, we see the continued increase for public support for legalization,” Hawkins said. “And we continue to see both red and blue states pass laws to legalize cannabis for either adult or medical use.”

As more states allow for cannabis sales, companies within the budding industry aren’t waiting for federal law changes to stake their claim.

In the past year, there have been a couple of multibillion-dollar mergers.The latest: Cresco’s $2.1 billion acquisition of Columbia Care. If the deal closes as expected in the fourth quarter, the combined company would have upward of 120 retail locations and dozens of facilities in 17 states and Washington, D.C.

“It sets us up very well if federal change happens any time soon,” Cresco CEO Charlie Batchell told CNN Business in an interview.

Other paths to legal reform

More than two-thirds of US states have legalized cannabis in some capacity: Of the 37 that have medical marijuana laws, 18 of them have recreational cannabis laws, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. And more could be on theway. States such as Delaware, New Hampshire and Rhode Island are debating recreational cannabis legalization. Petitiondrives and legislative efforts for medical marijuana programs are also underway in states such as Kansas, Nebraska, North Carolina and South Carolina, said Karen O’Keefe, director of state policies for the Marijuana Policy Project, a lobbying and advocacy organization.

One huge step toward broader reform is the Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act, which would make it easier for cannabis businesses to access banking services. Because marijuana remains illegal in the eyes of the federal government, and despite 2014 guidance from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, some financialinstitutions have been wary of serving cannabis-related businesses for fear of violating anti-money laundering laws.

The SAFE Act bill is gaining momentum in Congress and is now in a good position to become law, Hawkins said.

Beyond making it easier for financial institutions to work with cannabis businesses, the SAFE Banking Act has long been touted as a public safety measure. Colorado Rep. Ed Perlmutter first introduced the legislation five years ago following deadly robberies at cash-only dispensaries.

Re-upping those safety concerns after anotherrecent stretch of criminal activity at dispensaries, Perlmutter asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to “put the muscle of the administration behind getting it passed.” Yellen responded that she was in support of the bill, in an exchange first reported by Marijuana Moment.

Other reforms, and evenfull-on legalization could come via other means, however, including the Farm Bill, said Rep. David Scott, chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, in a tweet last month.Scott pushed for the Farm Bill to include a provision that would “eliminate barriers for small businesses and Black entrepreneurs to start legal cannabis companies under state law.”

But all these piecemeal approaches to legalization could end up backfiring, said South Carolina Republican Representative Nancy Mace.

Mace last year introduced the States Reform Act, a bill that seeks to decriminalize cannabis, have it federally regulated like alcohol, impose a 3% excise tax, let states determine their own approaches and programs toward cannabis, and open up the doors to banking.

“It’s bad enough you get a multibillion-dollar industry operating in cash. That’s dangerous,” she said.

Bills that approach a singular issue like banking or research risk not passing muster in court, she said.

“That’s my fear. One, we do it right, constitutionally,” she said. “And, two, if we do a small piece of it, we’re not going to touch it for 20 years.”

An equitable industry

Policymakers and industry members also should not lose sight of how individuals, especially people of color, continue to be criminalized for activities that are now legal at the state level, said Amber Littlejohn, CEO of the Minority Cannabis Business Association.

“First and foremost, we need to get people out of prison, and we need to stop arresting people for doing things that folks are making lots of money doing,” she said.

Nationwide, Black people are 3.6 times more likely than White people to be arrested for a cannabis-related reason, despite similar usage rates, according to the American Civil Liberties Union.

People of color also face tremendous barriers operating within the industry. Attempts have been made to create paths into the industry for those with non-violent marijuana convictions whose communities were negatively impacted from the War on Drugs. But these efforts have largely been unsuccessful due to of state policies that limit licenses, fail to offer financial and business resources to people of color andthatbenefit deeper-pocketed multistate operators, Littlejohn said.

“I think one of the biggest problems is there seems to be an incredible disconnect between what people say they support and believe in and what [becomes law],” she said. “It’s up to us, the collective us, to be holding folks accountable.”

Cannabis in the Land of Enchantment

In New Mexico, the cannabis industry could generate more than $300 million annually in sales and $50 million in tax revenue over the next 12 months, as well as create 11,000 new jobs within the state in the next five years, according to Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s office.

Between April 1-3, the first weekend of legal adult-use sales in New Mexico, cannabis retailers sold more than $5.2 million worth of recreational and medical products, Grisham said.

Parin Kumar, CEO and co-owner of the newly opened Vana Society cannabis store in Clovis, on the state’s eastern border, said she hasbeen seeing a steady stream of customers.

For small towns like Clovis that have been looking to diversify their economy, the burgeoning industry is a boon, expected to bring new jobs and tax revenue.

“Especially in communities like Clovis, the buildings, the infrastructure, the school need help, this definitely can do a lot for the community economically, ” Kumar said. “It feels like we’re giving back.”

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In Covid-19’s upheaval of the American economy, supply-and-demand patterns were swiftly knocked out of whack.

Almost overnight, entire industries were crippled, sidelining workers and putting millions of people on the unemployment rolls.

Seeking to ease the pain and balance out volatility in the labor market, corporations now are forging unlikely alliances and striking cross-industry agreements to redeploy their furloughed workers.

The biggest names in hotels and retail are hoping to funnel their underemployed personnel to grocery chains, pharmacies, delivery services and others in desperate need of employees.

Albertsons created a “hiring partner program” with other large hospitality, restaurants and retail firms. Hilton created a job portal to 28 companies — among them Amazon, Walgreens, Stop & Shop and The Home Depot — promising expedited hiring to its affected employees. On a smaller scale, Sedano’s, a Miami-based Hispanic grocery chain, offered temporary employment to workers at two local restaurant chains.

The idea of workers transitioning from checking guests into hotel rooms to running grocery checkouts is intended to be a short-term fix for an acute and immediate problem. But labor and public policy experts say it could signal a long-term shift in how work is done in America.

“It could open up some eyes or a different way of thinking about employment,” said Ravi Anupindi, professor of technology and operations and faculty director for the Center for Value Chain Innovation at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.

The needs of now

It didn’t take long for pain points to emerge at the companies experiencing severe spikes in demand.

“Our workers are pretty much at the max,” said Marc Perrone, president of the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, which represents more than 1.3 million workers in places such as grocery stores, meat-packing plants, chemical facilities and cannabis shops.

“They’re working six days a week, eight to 12 hours a day,” he said. “Ours are going to break at some point. It’s a long time to be working that long of a shift on concrete all day. ”

Perrone, who said favors employee-sharing arrangements, noted that UFCW opened a hiring portal of its own.

Working with companies like Albertsons and CVS in this capacity is completely new for such companies as Hilton and Kohl’s.

“We are in an unprecedented situation with hotels nearing zero occupancy,” Alison Menon, a Hilton spokesperson, wrote in an email to CNN Business. “This is creating challenges for all 4.7 million people working in the US hospitality industry. Helping our team members find alternative work at this time is one of the best ways to support their financial health and ensure that Hilton is able to welcome the them back when travel resumes.”

Kohl’s, which announced store closures with plans to pay employees for up to 14 days, has partnered with Albertsons to find temporary work for affected employees, said Jen Johnson, the department store chain’s senior vice president of communications.

“We will welcome our associates back to Kohl’s whenever we are able to reopen our stores,” she said via email. “We want our associates to do what’s best for them and their families, which could mean seeking additional employment while our stores are temporarily closed.”

Shifts in labor — especially at this scale — are usually time-intensive and costly, said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of Challenger, Gray and Christmas, a global outplacement firm.

“I love this idea of being able to seamlessly shift workers from an industry that has seen an enormous demand shock on the downside to an industry that has seen an enormous demand shock on the upside,” he said.

If companies can agree on the back end of the arrangement, this shift could not only address their emergency needs but also protect the labor market whenever the nation emerges from this crisis, he said.

“If this method facilitates a way to keep people marginally attached to a position until demand returns, it helps us recover and prevent so much pain for people in the long run,” he said.

This addresses labor market frictions and eliminates elements that make it harder or more costly for employers to find workers, said economist Harry J. Holzer, a professor at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy.

Then again, it does give a leg up to an insider and could result in someone else — perhaps a person in a disadvantaged economic position — missing out on a job, he said, adding that another concern could be the potential for collusion on aspects such as wages and benefits.

“One can imagine that if both sides of both firms like it, that they might want to continue some kind of arrangement like that,” he said. “And there again you can see the benefits to each side … but I worry about that collusion issue.”

What the future could bring

Employee-sharing is hardly a new concept, but it’s never been done to this scale, Anupindi said.

The practice has a longer history in Europe, he said, referencing studies by Cornell University’s Industrial and Labor Relations School. In countries such as Belgium and France, companies establish an “employer group” and coordinate assignments to a shared group of workers who would have full-time employment but utilize their skills at several different companies.

Although the concept remains a “marginal labor market phenomenon,” the Cornell studies found that they benefit workers and employers by providing stability, job security and growth in job skills. Alternatively, the efforts run the risk of overworking individuals as well as isolating them from an organizational structure.

Regardless, such moves require strong planning, mutual trust and a predictable pattern of employment needs.

“For the employee-sharing at a large-scale level to work, there has to be a counter-cyclicality,” Anupindi said. Without that he added,”this isn’t going to happen.”

He uses as an example how a lawn mowing service whose workers are busy in summer could see value in sharing workforces with a business that specializes in snow removal in the wintertime.

But Covid-19 has been anything but predictable or expected.

“What you’re seeing here is what I would classify as unpredictable seasonality — a shock to the system,” he said.

Although it’s doubtful that large companies will continue to run these services in a consistent manner, a look at China since the outbreak may offer some clues. Alibaba and JD.com launched employee-sharing programs in February. To what extent such arrangements continue could provide insights for other multinational companies.

“This is, in my mind, the largest, global natural experiment” of the future of work, Anupindi said.

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